Main Content
Your next drink could cost a whole lot more. The Trump administration announced unilateral tariffs on imports from almost every country and additional taxes on those from about 60.
Matt Cortina, NorthJersey.com
Published April 7, 2025
topher Barnes runs a small wine shop, Grape Collective, in Montclair. He also runs a small online magazine of the same name; the two work in concert to introduce people to the world’s unique wines and to give them a local place to buy them.
But the global tariffs Trump announced on Wednesday are throwing a wrinkle into his business, as are threats of 200% tariffs on European alcohol. Barnes says 60% of the wines he sells are from France and Italy.
“I guess it’s somewhat of a philosophy of life in that you can control what you can control, and we do our best to plan as far out as we can,” he says. “But something like this, when he tweets 200% tariffs, you don’t know. So until things happen, you have to clamp tight and stay positive.”
Those tariffs are likely to be passed along to consumers, says Avner Schneur, CEO of Mana Wine, a storage facility in Jersey City that works with wine importers. In fact, he says, we’ll likely pay more than the tax rate.
“There is no question this is all going to roll onto the consumer,” he says. “If the tariff for the sake of argument is 20%, the consumer will pay 25% because there are processing fees, etc. If you think there’s a transfer of dollar for dollar, percentage for percentage, you’re wrong. There’s going to be more.”
Indeed, everyone in the global wine and spirit supply chain — producers, importers, distributors, retailers and consumers — will be affected by the increased cost created by Trump’s tariffs. If consumers aren’t willing to pay more and small businesses aren’t able to offer enough affordable alternatives, they could be in trouble, says Ramu Govindasamy, marketing professor at Rutgers’ Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
“There are many small and medium stores, if they are importing, then they are going to struggle. Some will go under for sure,” he says. “It all depends on can they switch to local sourcing? Some products yes but I guess if they are somewhat focused on these specialty products for Europe, those stores will go under for sure.”
Trump’s tariffs on wine, from 10% to 200%
On Wednesday, Trump announced unilateral 10% tariffs on imports from every trading partner in the world (excluding Mexico and Canada) set to go into effect Saturday, plus additional taxes on imports from about 60 countries starting April 9.
The Trump administration also announced it would assess importers a 25% tax on all canned beer and empty aluminum cans, including those from Mexico and Canada. More than $7.5 billion worth of beer was imported to the U.S. in 2024, per U.S. census bureau data, with Mexican imports comprising the vast majority of that.
Trump has also threatened 200% tariffs on all European wine, champagne and alcohol imports if the EU’s tariff on American whiskey is not removed immediately.
While Trump claims the tariffs will address what he sees as trade imbalances, the biggest losers in the trade war are likely to be consumers. The Yale Budget Lab predicts each U.S. household will lose $3,800 on average due to the tariffs. That’s because the tariff is placed on the importing company here in the U.S.; in order to account for that added cost, many simply increase the price of their goods or services down the line to the consumer.
Ripple effects throughout the supply chain
For consumers, the math is pretty simple, Barnes says: “A wine that is $20 will become $24.” There may be wiggle room from wine to wine, shop to shop, but expect a cost increase on all foreign beverages.
Now, the calculus he and other small wine shop owners need to do is whether customers will follow certain wines to these higher price points, or whether he’ll need to look for other, cheaper wines.
“I could probably find another wine at that price point, which may not be as interesting of a wine,” he says. “For the wine factories, the places that make millions and millions of liters of wine, that’s still going to be there. But to find a cooperative that may be smaller but still works with organic farmers and is able to produce wine at a reasonable cost, those are going to be much harder to find.”Business: NJ saw double the layoffs in first quarter vs last year, even before tariff fears
For many wine drinkers, you can’t simply trade a foreign wine for a domestic one, of course. People have preferences on regions, grapes and vintages. The tariffs could also stifle exploration and discovery of new wine, something Barnes built Grape Collective to foster. For instance, the tariffs on imports from South Africa (30%) could make the unique wines from there too cost prohibitive to bring in and/or too pricey for consumers to try.
A reduction in imports on that wine will have ripple effects all the way from the consumer to the producer.
“At the end of the day, the people who are going to be hurt the most are not the South African government probably,” Barnes says. “It’s the third-generation wine family that is going to see a good proportion of their livelihood damaged. So there’s unfortunate human consequences to all of these things.”
Schneur at Mana Wine, meanwhile, directly sees the impacts on the middle of the supply chain — importers and distributors. Mana runs a massive warehouse in Jersey City, where importers can have their wines and spirits delivered right from the ship and, because it’s a certified bonded warehouse, can delay paying taxes on the goods. Distributors can take out a few cases at a time for deliveries and pay tax on just what they take out, essentially softening the tax burden over time.
“It used to be little money, no big deal,” Schneur says of the tariffs. “But now you’re talking about a huge amount of money and they can’t pay for it.”
For reference, the U.S. imported almost $7 billion worth of wine last year, and 80% of that coming from Europe.
Schneur says “our phone is ringing off the hook every day now,” from importers looking for solutions. In part because the communication around the tariffs was ambiguous, he says some New Jersey-based importers have shipments on the seas right now that will suddenly be subject to way more taxation than when the order was placed.
“You have a container on the way because that’s what you do in the wine business and you did not prepare for the tariffs,” he says. “Even if you prepared, nobody thought of this magnitude. This is a massive magnitude. And that creates a significant burden financially and that can cause a lot of people significant hardship.”
The tariffs will also affect broader industries in New Jersey, Govindasamy says. Restaurants, farmers markets and ethnic grocery stores will take a hit as “specialty product [like olive oil, cheese, etc.] may become harder to source and smaller businesses with less pricing flexibility could struggle to absorb the cost increases.”
Low-income communities in New Jersey, already burdened with trying to afford higher food prices, will be “disproportionately affected,” he says.
New Jersey imported $13 billion worth of food and beverage products in 2023, making it the second largest importer of foreign food in the country. The sector employs 280,000 people here, and Govindasamy asserts the potential for increased operational costs could affect the workforce.
What’s next for the local wine industry?
Govindasamy says consumers should be cautious about their spending as tariffs take effect and to not expect an end to them soon: “No one knows,” he says. “It’s going to be a while.”Federal cuts: North Jersey food pantries try to meet growing need with fewer resources after fed cuts
But given that businesses, particularly those in the food and beverage industry, need to plan expenses with months (at least) of lead time, the true local ramifications of the tariffs may not be evident until later.
“It makes it extremely difficult to plan, especially if you’re a distributor and you have containers of wine you need to order and you don’t know that if you buy a container now, will it be 200% more expensive in a month,” Barnes says. “That can be millions of dollars. If you have five containers, that can be millions of dollars of difference in cost.”
And, as he and others say, “Generally, the prices get passed on all the way down the chain.”
Matt Cortina is a food reporter for NorthJersey.com/The Record. Reach him at mcortina@gannett.com.